US unemployment report

Weekly wrap

US unemployment report

Foto: Yandex

Period: April 4-10, 2020

Main topic: The key event of the week is the US unemployment report

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Even worse forecasts: JPMorgan predicts the increase of unemployment in the second quarter to 20%. Taking into account payments from the budget and Fed issuance programs, which, theoretically, should preserve employment, this means that it will be virtually impossible to keep the economy from the onset of a structural recession.

Macroeconomics

Eurozone construction activity at the bottom since February 2009, the worst sales in history (France and Italy are especially weak).

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Similar situation in the UK.

The Spaniards are gloomy for a maximum of 7 years, the British for 11, the Americans for more than 8.

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In Britain, car sales in March halved in comparison with the same month last year - apparently, April will be even worse.

Sentix EU investor sentiment falls below 2009 bottom - https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/2c9a8236-303f-4a10-aec4-0f568c170d1f?timezoneOffset=-180

In Australia, the number of job postings fell by 10.2% per month: this has not happened since January 2009, Australia's service sector PMI fell to an 11-year low:

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A review of the U.S. small business sentiment from NFIB showed the worst monthly decline in history - the index itself is minimal for 3.5 years, and half of the respondents said that in the current business conditions their companies will be able to live no more than 2 months.

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Along the same trajectory, the state economic optimism index from IBD / TIPP followed.

Business activity in Canada at the bottom in the history of the review since 1999. The Japanese index of economic observers has made about the same dive.

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In Britain, decline started even before the epidemic: in February, GDP fell by January (-0.1%), and its annual growth was the weakest in 8 years. Industrial production shrank by 2.8% per year, including in the manufacturing sectors - by 3.9% (in both cases, the record for 7 years). In the construction industry, output decreased by 2.7% per year (the worst dynamics in 14 months).

Machine-building orders in Japan were reduced by 40.8% per year, and the total value (in yen) is approximately equal to the average values of the 1980 / 90s:

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The initial claims for unemployment benefits in the US in 3 weeks were 16.6 million, repeated at a record peak.

And in Canada, the March report is colossal: unemployment is the worst in 10 years, employment failure is record high:

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The US Federal Reserve has created a new package of assistance to households, local authorities and businesses for 2.3 trillion. dollars.

Conclusions

Colossal injections of money did not allow maintaining the normal structure of production in the world economy: rising unemployment shows that the scale of investments has fallen sharply, it will inevitably drop in employment and household incomes (even after receiving loans, employers refuse to support production), then GDP decline. At the same time, it is clearly visible (see the previous weekly review) that the decline in different sectors will go at different rates. The classic structural crisis begins, described in M. Khazin’s book “Recollection of the Future. Ideas of the modern economy.


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